Fuzzy cognitive maps and multi-step gradient methods for prediction: Applications to electricity consumption and stock exchange returns

Abstract

The paper focuses on the application of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) with multi-step learning algorithms based on gradient method and Markov model of gradient for prediction tasks. Two datasets were selected for the implementation of the algorithms: real data of household electricity consumption and stock exchange returns that include Istanbul Stock Exchange returns. These data were used in learning and testing processes of the proposed FCM approaches. A comparative analysis of the two-stepmethod of Markov model of gradient,multi-step gradient method and one-step gradient method is performed in order to show the capabilities and effectiveness of each method and conclusions are based on the obtained MSE, RMSE, MAE and MAPE errors.