A Model between Near-Surface Air Temperature Change and Dynamic Influencing Factors in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau, China

Abstract

Climate change, characterized by global warming, is profoundly affecting the global environment, politics, economy, and social security. Finding the main causes of climate change and determining their quantitative contributions are key points to making climate decisions on responses to climate change. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is sensitive to global climate change. Taking the 100 km buffer zones of 45 meteorological stations in the eastern TP as research objects, we conducted an experimental study on temperature change and its influencing factors. Using the least squares multivariate statistical analysis method, a model between the annual and seasonal standardized temperature change and its dynamic influencing factors in the past 20 years was established. The results showed that, in the eastern TP, temperature change was affected by different factors in different periods. Vegetation cover and snow cover were the most correlated factors to temperature change. The influence of carbon dioxide, vegetation cover, and water cover was subject to seasonal changes. Urban cover and bare land cover did not pass the t-test. This research not only provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of temperature change over the TP, but also points out the direction for the analysis of temperature change causes in three polar regions.