A Revised Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate

Abstract

In our original study we crafted trajectories for developed and developing countries that phased-out greenhouse gas emissions during 2015-2065 such that the maximum global warming does not exceed the 2℃ threshold adopted by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the cumulative emissions for developed and developing countries are identical. Here we examine the effects of increasing the start year from 2015 to 2030 in 5-year intervals, and the phase-out period from 50 to 100 years in 10-year intervals. We find that phase-out during 2020-2100 is optimal. This phase-out increases the year of peak emission from 2015 to 2030 for developed countries and from 2042 to 2053 for developing countries. It also increases the time from peak emissions to zero emissions from 50 to 70 years for developed countries and from 23 to 47 years for developing countries. Both outcomes should facilitate agreement of the Revised Fair Plan by the UNFCCC.