Toward rational social decisions: A review and some results

Abstract

Bayesian decision theory is profoundly personalistic. It prescribes the decision d that minimizes the expectation of the decision-maker's loss function L(d, Θ) with respect to that person's opinion π(Θ). Attempts to extend this paradigm to more than one decision-maker have generally been unsuccessful, as shown in Part A of this paper. Part B of this paper explores a different decision set-up, in which Bayesians make choices knowing that later Bayesians will make decisions that matter to the earlier Bayesians. We explore conditions under which they together can be modeled as a single Bayesian. There are three reasons for doing so 1. To understand the common structure of various examples, in some of which the reduction to a single Bayesian is possible, and in some of which it is not. In particular, it helps to deepen our understanding of the desirability of randomization to Bayesians. 2. As a possible computational simplification. When such reduction is possible, standard expected loss minimization software can be used to find optimal actions. 3. As a start toward a better understanding of social decision-making.