Interval optimization to schedule a multi-energy system with data-driven PV uncertainty representation†

Abstract

Recently, multi-energy systems (MESs), whereby different energy carriers are coupled together, have become popular. For a more efficient use of MESs, the optimal operation of these systems needs to be considered. This paper focuses on the day-ahead optimal schedule of an MES, including a combined heat and electricity (CHP) unit, a gas boiler, a PV system, and energy storage devices. Starting from a day-ahead PV point forecast, a non-parametric probabilistic forecast method is proposed to build the predicted interval and represent the uncertainty of PV generation. Afterwards, the MES is modeled as mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), and the scheduling problem is solved by interval optimization. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a case study is performed on a real industrial MES. The simulation results show that, by using only historical PV measurement data, the point forecaster reaches a normalized root-mean square error (NRMSE) of 14.24%, and the calibration of probabilistic forecast is improved by 10% compared to building distributions around point forecast. Moreover, the results of interval optimization show that the uncertainty of the PV system not only has an influence on the electrical part of the MES, but also causes a shift in the behavior of the thermal system.