TURKEY’S AGRICULTURAL EXPORT: AN APPLICATION OF THE GRAVITY MODEL

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine the agricultural export structure of Turkey with the gravity model method and discuss possible policy proposals. In line with this aim an annual panel data of 16 selected countries Turkey export to for the period 2001-2030 has been used in the gravity model. According to the estimation results, GDP and population of the countries that Turkey export to are related to the agricultural exports positively while the distance variable is negatively. As the per capita animal protein consumption ratio increase, it can be said that new agricultural export areas can be opened for Turkey. At this point, it has been determined that Turkey needs to follow increasing domestic consumption trends and emerging markets. As a result, it is important for policy makers to take into account the relevant determinations of the export strategy of agricultural products.