Seasonal trends in marine heatwaves highlight vulnerable coastal ecoregions and historic change points in New Zealand

Abstract

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have increased worldwide in intensity, frequency, and duration, often with severe impacts on ecologically and socio-economically important coastal habitats. Most MHW studies have focused on summer events in specific regions or global open-water analyses with little consideration to seasonality or spatial biogeography of the nearshore zone. We address this research gap by analysing changes to MHWs across seasons and ecoregions, within 12 nautical miles (NM) of New Zealand’s coastline, an area with high biodiversity and endemism. We used season-specific linear trend analysis with temporal breakpoints between 1982 and 2021 to identify the number of MHW events and MHW days, and mean, maximum, and cumulative intensity of MHWs for New Zealand coastal ecoregions. Across ecoregions, 69.5% of 200 trend analyses increased significantly whereas the remaining 30.5% were unaffected. For the significant increases, temporal breakpoints occurred between 1994 and 2012. We conclude that MHWs have become stronger, longer and more frequent across coastal New Zealand, but with some variability within and between regions. Our trend-analyses could enable retrospective analyses of biological tipping-points and inform management practices that may enhance the resilience of ecoregions yet to face MHW breakpoints or those in the initial stages of major climatic changes.