Arctic Impact Assessment: Setting the Stage

Abstract

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report to the Arctic Council in 2004 was the "first" comprehensive assessment of climate change in the Arctic. It delivered dramatic messages to the world on the changes in the Arctic climate and the critical role of this region for the future development of the global climate. These messages were confirmed in the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Hence, this chapter seeks to summarize the findings of the ACIA that are increasingly viewed as foundational security issues for a sustainable future for the Arctic region and a bellwether of change for the rest of the world. Further, there follows a discussion of the Arctic Council assessments that followed the ACIA as well as an outline of a potential comprehensive follow-on assessment that is designed to assess the many elements of change, many of which have security implications for the eight Arctic countries, the peoples of the north, and for the world at large.