Receiver operating characteristic analysis of milk lactose for identification of mastitis in buffaloes

Abstract

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is a simple statistical tool used to classify a diagnostic indicator in terms of area under a ROC curve (AUC) and to develop potential threshold values of a diagnostic indicator. Milk lactose was analyzed by ROC analysis to see its accuracy to discriminate infected and healthy udder quarters, and to develope an optimum threshold value along with corresponding sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp) and positive likelihood ratio (LR+) value. Data for the present study comprised of 1516 milk samples collected from Jaffrabadi buffaloes. Milk lactose was estimated by milk analyzer ‘LACTOSCAN’ and further samples were checked for sub-clinical mastitis by California mastitis test (CMT). The threshold values of milk lactose for identification of moderate and severe infection were found to be 5.31g% (Se, 58.82%; Sp, 58.28%) and 5.23g% (Se, 70.97%; Sp, 64.41%), respectively by ROC analysis. Milk samples with lactose content below 5.31g% were 1.41 times more likely come from moderately infected quarters (LR+ = 1.41); whereas, below 5.23g% were 1.99 times more likely come from severely infected quarters (LR+ = 1.99). The overall accuracy of milk lactose for discrimination of normal quarters from moderately infected quarters was 64% (AUC=0.64) and from severely infected quarters was 72% (AUC=0.72) (P<0.001). Thus, the present study indicated that milk lactose classified mastitic and healthy udder quarters in Jaffrabadi buffaloes with moderate accuracy.