Militants in Retreat: How Terrorists Behave When They Are Losing

Abstract

It is often stated that militant groups rely on terrorism following setbacks, but this article is the first test this idea empirically. A statistical study of 56 losing terrorist groups shows that, as they are defeated, a greater proportion of operational activity is directed against softer targets. I argue the shift is caused by a change in strategy to focus on mobilizing support, which creates a greater perceived utility for operations against civilians. Case studies of militant groups in Chechnya and Argentina show how the change in strategy interacts with other constraints to induce a greater focus on softer targets.