Revealing the dynamics of demand forecasting in supply chain management: a holistic investigation

Abstract

Demand forecasting, a crucial aspect of anticipating future customer needs, involves using historical data to predict trends. With the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), companies are increasingly turning to machine learning algorithms to enhance accuracy in forecasting compared to traditional methods. This article delves into the application of machine learning algorithms in demand forecasting, specifically within the realm of supply chain management, addressing both long-term (4–5 years) and short-term (3–4 months) scenarios. The primary focus is on improving prediction accuracy by employing feature selection algorithms and various machine learning and deep learning approaches. Utilizing diverse algorithms, such as time series, traditional machine learning, and advanced deep learning techniques, the study aims to forecast demand for different timeframes. Evaluation metrics like Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Percentage Error (MPE) are employed to assess the effectiveness of each model. The primary goal is to pinpoint the most effective algorithm tailored to a specific dataset. This empowers companies to make well-informed decisions and enhance their supply chain operations by leveraging precise demand forecasts. The results of this study hold the potential to empower decision-makers and practitioners by enhancing their forecasting capabilities. By integrating both forecast periods a more comprehensive and robust supply chain strategy is ensured.