Study of a System Dynamics Model of Wuhan Commodity Housing Price

Abstract

Commodity housing is the most important product in the development of modern civil engineering, and it is also the frontier problem of modern engineering project management research. The progress of civil engineering in China can be seen to a great extent through the development of commercial housing. In order to solve the severe problem of rapid growth of commodity housing price in China, considering the advantages of system dynamics theory, a system dynamics model of commodity housing price is constructed. Eight subsystems, namely, housing demand, housing supply, housing price, urban population, urban economy, housing land, housing tenancy, and macro-control, are studied. Taking the relevant data of Wuhan as an example, the Vensim DSS is used for simulations. In addition, a validity test and sensitivity test are used to verify the validity and feasibility of the model, respectively. Based on the model, it is successfully predicted that the price of commercial housing in Wuhan will reach 18,207.9 yuan/m2 in 2030, which provides a more systematic method of prediction for synthesis simulation of commercial housing markets. From the perspective of the developer loan interest rate, real estate tax rate, purchase restriction, and other policies, we show that the developer loan interest rate regulation policy has the strongest effect on guiding the change in commercial housing prices in Wuhan. Generally, this study provides insight into the responses that the national government could use to control housing prices.