Identification and validation of immune-related gene signature models for predicting prognosis and immunotherapy response in hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Background: This study seeks to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of clinical diagnosis and therapeutic decision-making in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), as well as to optimize the assessment of immunotherapy response. Methods: A training set comprising 305 HCC cases was obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Initially, a screening process was undertaken to identify prognostically significant immune-related genes (IRGs), followed by the application of logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression methods for gene modeling. Subsequently, the final model was constructed using support vector machines-recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE). Following model evaluation, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was employed to examine the gene expression profiles in tissue samples obtained from our cohort of 54 patients with HCC and an independent cohort of 231 patients, and the prognostic relevance of the model was substantiated. Thereafter, the association of the model with the immune responses was examined, and its predictive value regarding the efficacy of immunotherapy was corroborated through studies involving three cohorts undergoing immunotherapy. Finally, the study uncovered the potential mechanism by which the model contributed to prognosticating HCC outcomes and assessing immunotherapy effectiveness. Results: SVM-RFE modeling was applied to develop an OS prognostic model based on six IRGs (CMTM7, HDAC1, HRAS, PSMD1, RAET1E, and TXLNA). The performance of the model was assessed by AUC values on the ROC curves, resulting in values of 0.83, 0.73, and 0.75 for the predictions at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. A marked difference in OS outcomes was noted when comparing the high-risk group (HRG) with the low-risk group (LRG), as demonstrated in both the initial training set (P <0.0001) and the subsequent validation cohort (P <0.0001). Additionally, the SVMRS in the HRG demonstrated a notable positive correlation with key immune checkpoint genes (CTLA-4, PD-1, and PD-L1). The results obtained from the examination of three cohorts undergoing immunotherapy affirmed the potential capability of this model in predicting immunotherapy effectiveness. Conclusions: The HCC predictive model developed in this study, comprising six genes, demonstrates a robust capability to predict the OS of patients with HCC and immunotherapy effectiveness in tumor management.