Forecasting Models for Hydropower Unit Stability Using LS-SVM

Abstract

This paper discusses a least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) approach for forecasting stability parameters of Francis turbine unit. To achieve training and testing data for the models, four field tests were presented, especially for the vibration in Y -direction of lower generator bearing (LGB) and pressure in draft tube (DT). A heuristic method such as a neural network using Backpropagation (NNBP) is introduced as a comparison model to examine the feasibility of forecasting performance. In the experimental results, LS-SVM showed superior forecasting accuracies and performances to the NNBP, which is of significant importance to better monitor the unit safety and potential faults diagnosis.