The urban system of crotone, Italy, facing the earthquake impact

Abstract

A methodology is proposed that can predict, with a systemic approach, the status of the economic, social, cultural and administrative components of an urban centre in normal growth and in seismic crisis. This is essential to evaluate the ability of a city to fulfill its functions after a disaster. In the model, the following subsystems are considered as part of the urban system: Social, Residential, Cultural, Health, Education, Energy, Economic, Administrative and Emergency. Each one of the above sub-systems includes many elements at risk and is influenced by the other sub-systems. As an application example we look at Crotone municipality, South Italy, where data on active faults, soil, buildings, infrastructures, lifelines, and population have been extensively collected in the past, within the PIC-Urban II project. Damage scenarios are proposed for earthquakes with different return periods. The functionality of the considered sub-systems is also evaluated.