The War in Ukraine and EU Climate Leadership

Abstract

Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, EU deliberations on the ‘ Fit-for-55’ climate/energy package embedded in the European Green Deal were already well underway. The energy transition had also begun to gai n traction towards more renewables, energy saving and emissions reduction. The invasion caused an energy-political earthquake that threatened to split the EU, slowing down or weakening these ongoing processes. This study finds that the invasion 1) strengthened rather than weakened the ‘ Fit for 55’ package; 2) accelerated rather than slowed the ongoing energy transition; and 3) may have strengthened the EU’s potential for climate leadership-by-example. However, the further consequences are highly uncertain as the EU shifts from crisis response to long-term governance of climate and energy policy implementation.