Swimmer Dropout Rate: A Survival Analysis

Abstract

The length of time that a swimmer frequents a particular sports facility, using the records held by the facilities have often been under-used. We examined various behavioral variables associated with time of attendance until the point of dropout using swimmers’ records. 6,749 swimmers were used in this study. The survival analysis focused on the time interval between the moment they became a customer until either the end of the study or the moment when the customer relationship ended (dropout). The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to gather information as to when dropout would occur; Cox regression and the Logrank test provided statistical comparisons between the groups. The results showed that the swimmers' likelihood of retention beyond 12 months was 53% and the median swimmer's survival time was 14 months. The cohort of customers signing up for more than two sessions per week was likely to stay longer, and the greater the number of visits, the longer the customers were likely to continue (> 40 visits increases the survival probability up to 91.86%). Good sports management practice requires improvements in customer retention; by monitoring the variables of survival rates, we will improve management strategies for sustainability through pre-emptive actions to increase retention.