Energy consumption forecast using demographic data approach with canaanland as case study

Abstract

Various methods or models of forecasting energy have been addressed in the past, but it has been observed from exhaustive research that these methods are highly complex and usually require past or historical data of load consumption in its analysis. Hence, a new model that is simple and only makes use of readily available demographic user data such as the Energy consumption in KWh per capita of the country in view, population and land mass area of the urban community under study (Canaanland in this case) was expatiated here. This paper reiterates this model in a clearer, more explicit and applicable way; developing a flow chart that shows a step by step process of forecasting the energy consumption and a matlab code which does the actually computation in KVAh for each forecast year. Results obtained in this case showed that though the forecast values seemed a bit lower than the actual peak consumption for past years covered in the forecast, it still gives an average estimate of the future energy needs for any community without previous information on consumption, which would be very useful in planning.