The Emerging Arctic Shipping Corridors

Abstract

The dramatic sea ice loss makes trans-Arctic navigation possible. However, navigability assessments at high temporal resolution are still very limited. To bridge this gap, daily sea ice concentration and thickness from CMIP6 projections are applied to evaluate the future potential of Arctic shipping under multiple climate scenarios. The September navigable area will continue to increase through the 2050s for open-water (OW) ships and the 2040s for Polar Class 6 (PC6) vessels across all scenarios. Quasi-equilibrium states will then ensue for both OW and PC6 ships under SSP245 and SSP585. The sailing time will be shortened, especially for OW ships, while the navigable days for both types of vessels will increase dramatically. PC6 ships will be able to sail the Arctic shipping routes year-round starting in the 2070s when the decadal-averaged global mean surface temperature anomaly hits approximately +3.6°C (under SSP585) compared to pre-industrial times (1850–1900).