Range-wide Population Trend Analysis for Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2023

Abstract

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are at the center of state and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960–2023. Included in this update are changes in terminology. Specifically, we now use the terms Period 1 (previously Long), Period 2 (previously Medium/ Long), Period 3 (previously Medium), Period 4 (previously Short/Medium), Period 5 (previously Short), and Period 6 (previously Recent) to identify specific trends. State-space models estimated 2.8-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. Average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.1 and 3.1 percent. Cumulative declines were 41.1, 64.5, and 78.4 percent range-wide during Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively. Population growth during 2022 and 2023 continue to point to 2021 as the most recent range-wide nadir.