High-resolution national land use scenarios under a shrinking population in Japan

Abstract

In sharp contrast with the global trend in population growth, certain developed countries are expected to experience rapid national population declines. Considering future land use scenarios that include depopulation is necessary to evaluate changes in ecosystem services that affect human well-being and to facilitate comprehensive strategies for balancing rural and urban development. In this study, we applied a population-projection-assimilated predictive land use modeling (PPAP-LM) approach, in which a spatially explicit population projection was incorporated as a predictor in a land use model. To analyze the effects of future population distributions on land use, we developed models for five land use types and generated projections for two scenarios (centralization and decentralization) under a shrinking population in Japan during 2015–2050. Our results suggested that population centralization promotes the compaction of built-up areas and the expansion of forest and wastelands, while population decentralization contributes to the maintenance of a mixture of forest and cultivated land.