SARS-CoV-2 Risk Quantification Model and Validation Based on Large-Scale Dutch Test Events

Abstract

In response to the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, many governments decided in 2020 to impose lockdowns on societies. Although the package of measures that constitute such lockdowns differs between countries, it is a general rule that contact between people, especially in large groups of people, is avoided or prohibited. The main reasoning behind these measures is to prevent healthcare systems from becoming overloaded. As of 2021 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are available, but these do not guarantee 100% risk reduction and it will take a while for the world to reach a sufficient immune status. This raises the question of whether and under which conditions events like theater shows, conferences, professional sports events, concerts, and festivals can be organized. The current paper presents a COVID-19 risk quantification method for (large-scale) events. This method can be applied to events to define an alternative package of measures replacing generic social distancing.