Konfl ik Internasional Abad ke-21? Benturan Antarnegara Demokrasi dan Masa Depan Politik Dunia

Abstract

‘The clash of civilizations’ of Samuel Huntington and ‘the end of history’ of Francis Fukuyama are two grandtheories that have been widely accepted as the most dominant narratives in post- Cold War internationalrelations. Unfortunately, there have been litt le theoretical developments in today’s world to predict thefuture of international confl ict. The theory assumed that the future international confl ict will not occurbetween democracies and non-democracies as Democratic Peace Theory proposed, but between establisheddemocracies and emerging democracies. The established democracies reluctant to share their power with theemerging democracies on how to manage global order. This reluctancy will lead to political frictions andconfl icts among them. In spite of its theoretical breakthrough, this theory suff ers of logical inconsistencysince it does not distinguish between emerging democracies and emerging powers. Instead of confl ictamong democracies, this article argues that international confl icts in the 21st century will be dominatedby asimetrical confl ict between nation-states and radical movements, confl icts due to information openess,and confl ict over natural resources.