Inflation targeting challenges in emerging market countries: The case of Serbia

Abstract

In the past two decades Inflation targeting has been the monetary policy framework of choice for many developed nations around the world. A significant number of emerging market countries*** have gradually subscribed to the same monetary regime, but with different levels of success. Certain differences among emerging markets in terms of overall macroeconomic environment, strength of basic monetary policy tools, and institutional development have had an effect on the performance of inflation targeting. This paper focuses on the fulfilment of basic preconditions for implementation of inflation targeting in emerging market countries, and on results and challenges of inflation targeting implementation in Serbia more than six years after its introduction. Special attention is paid to high dollarization (euroization), which poses a serious challenge for inflation targeting, and to modification of the Taylor rule for dollarized economies. For inflation targeting in Serbia to be more effective, a (gradual) decrease in overall dollarization (euroization), fiscal discipline and sustainability, and an increase in the independence and capacity of the central bank are needed, among other things.