Conceptualising European Security Post-Brexit: Turbulence, Complexity and Interdependence

Abstract

This chapter presents an analytical framework for conceptualising European security policy post-Brexit. Informed by turbulence theory and complexity science, it aims to address current gaps in traditional conceptualisations of security, which fail to account for the continuous temporality and change in international security. Conceptualising EU and NATO as complex adaptive system (CAS), for example, taking into account the agencies of micro and macro actors and the effects of the interactions between them would enable greater stability and efficiency. This is because CAS can address the `butterfly effects' created by instances of uncertainty and manifested as `disturbance' or `stressors', allowing thus to better `predict' and `control' turbulence, change and crises in the international security order.