Does the current crisis mark the end of the EU’s austerity era? Competing political projects in European fiscal governance

Abstract

Following the pandemic, the EU has responded to the threat of a euro crisis flare-up by deactivating its fiscal framework and establishing the Recovery and Resilience Facility, drawing on joint European bonds to finance national investments. This paper seeks to explain these modifications to fiscal governance and asks whether they are an indication of European austerity making way for an alternative fiscal paradigm. Based on a neo-Gramscian approach, it discusses the policies as parts of competing political projects that are promoted or hindered by certain framework conditions. The paper undertakes a structured comparison of these framework conditions during the euro crisis and the current crisis. It finds that geoeconomic competition increases the demand for a more active fiscal policy, while political preferences and structural relations remained remarkably stable. As the current crisis is marked by high inflation, economic conditions are adverse to a fiscally expansive agenda. The findings do not suggest a lasting reorientation of European fiscal governance. Instead, the measures taken during the pandemic are interpreted as expressions of ‘passive revolution’ in which the EMU adapts elements of a fiscal integrative agenda to provide necessary fixes to its economic order while keeping its underlying fiscally restrictive features intact.