Effects of increased CO2 on land water balance from 1850 to 1989

Abstract

Numerous studies have shown that increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is one of the most important factors altering land water balance. In this study, we investigated the effects of increased CO2 on global land water balance using the dataset released by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 derived from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis second-generation Earth System Model. The results suggested that the radiative effect of CO2 was much greater than the physiological effect on the water balance. At the model experiment only integrating CO2 radiative effect, the precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff had significantly increased by 0. 37, 0. 12 and 0. 31 mm year-2, respectively. Increases of ET and runoff caused a significant decrease of soil water storage by 0. 05 mm year-2. However, the results showed increases of runoff and decreases of precipitation and ET in response to the CO2 fertilisation effect, which resulted into a small, non-significant decrease in the land water budget. In the Northern Hemisphere, especially on the coasts of Greenland, Northern Asia and Alaska, there were obvious decreases of soil water responding to the CO2 radiative effect. This trend could result from increased ice-snow melting as a consequence of warmer surface temperature. Although the evidence suggested that variations in soil moisture and snow cover and vegetation feedback made an important contribution to the variations in the land water budget, the effect of other factors, such as aerosols, should not be ignored, implying that more efforts are needed to investigate the effects of these factors on the hydrological cycle and land water balance. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.