Book Review: Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next 50 Years

Abstract

From the Publisher: Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to, and plan for, the consequences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long-term trends. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance: the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, the United States, and Islamic nations; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change-in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change-and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, relying on long-term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe. Preface: What to expect -- 1: How (Not) To Look Ahead -- 2: Fatal Discontinuities -- Natural catastrophes -- Encounters with extraterrestrial objects -- Volcanic mega-eruptions and collapses -- Influenza pandemics -- Violent conflicts -- Transformational wars -- Terrorist attacks -- Imaginable surprises -- 3: Unfolding Trends -- Energy transitions -- Dominant fuels, enduring prime movers -- Solar (nuclear?) civilization -- New world order -- Europe's place -- Japan's decline -- Islam's choice -- Russia's way -- China's rise -- United States' retreat -- Place on top -- Dominance and decline -- Globalization and inequality -- 4: Environmental Change -- Global warming and its consequences -- Rising temperatures -- Ocean's rise, dynamics and composition -- Ecosystems and economies -- Other global changes -- Changing water and nitrogen cycles -- Loss of biodiversity and invasive species -- Antibiotic resistance -- Biosphere's integrity -- 5: Dealing With Risk And Uncertainty -- Relative fears -- Quantifying the odds -- Rational attitudes -- Acting as risk minimizers -- Next 50 years -- Appendix A: Units and abbreviations, prefixes -- Appendix B: Acronyms -- References -- Name index -- Subject index.