Studying the Possibilities of Technological Development of the Russian Economy with the Foresight Methods

Abstract

During formation and implementation of priorities of development in Russia, preference is given not so much to external challenges as to internal tendencies of technological development, caused by peculiarities of the national economy. As of now, Russia faces the “challenge of development”, which determines the necessity for transition to breakthrough technological direction as the most important perspective task that defines the future socio-economic development [1]. Emergence of “challenge of development” was caused by a combination of a range of factors, of which the main ones are as follows: – depletion of the possibilities of development in the traditional regime (for the Russian economy), at which technological development has an inferior role within the common “energy and resource” economic growth, ensures by oil revenues. This was enough for provision of serious support by the state for technical and economic development. Also, there is an issue of evaluating the effectiveness of state expenditures for supporting technological activities, capitalization of their results, and accumulation of incomes; – practical implementation of plans of state economic policy in the sphere of scientific and applied (technological and innovational) activities; solving the problems of technological modernization of economy envisages suppression and transformation of resources markets. This article substantiates application of Foresight as a systemic tool of designing the future, which allows outlining the potential horizons of modernization and possibilities of technological development of the Russian economy. With the help of the methods of critical technologies, modeling, and road mapping, the choice of directions that allow ensuring development of leading production technologies and business models is proved, in view of priorities and perspectives that are proclaimed in the Strategy of technological development of Russia and long-term complex program “National technological Initiative”, and according to economic, educational, and innovational policy of the state.