Dispatches from the Frontline: Using pro-poor foresight to influence decision-making

Abstract

In the Horn of Africa's very recent past, drought events that were predicted have resulted in preventable famine and humanitarian catastrophe. During the last decade, careful observers predicted the financial crisis that led the Great Recession out of which the world economy continues to emerge. Why is the response to such early warning often so late or inadequate? Under what circumstances and in what contexts is foresight effective in influencing decisions and action? This brief report begins a reflection on these issues. Using the experience of a selection of the Rockefeller Foundation's Searchlight initiative partners around the world, it reflects on how foresight has attempted to influence policy and action, some of the techniques used and proposes some of the lessons and observations that can be drawn from these experiences.