Risk acceptance and rejection for threat and opportunity risks in conflicting incentives risk analysis

Abstract

Classical methods for risk analysis usually rely on probability estimates that are sometimes difficult to verify. In particular, this is the case when the system in question is non-stationary or does not have a history for which reliable statistics is available. These methods focus on risks in relation to threats failing to consider risks in relation to opportunity. The Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis (CIRA) addresses both these issues. Previously, CIRA has been investigated in analyzing threat risks. The paper contributes by illustrating the concept of opportunity risk in the context of CIRA. We give some theoretical underpinnings of risk acceptance and rejection of CIRA, addressing both risks. Furthermore, the paper explains the extension of CIRA to risk management by outlining the risk treatment (response) measures for threat (opportunity) risks. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.