A Model for Forecasting Tourists Arrival in JandK, India

Abstract

Data Mining is a method for extracting patterns from historical data. In this paper, we forecast the number of tourists in J&K state for the next five years that should totally depend upon the historical time series data of tourists in J&K state. For this, Exponential Smoothing model and IBM SPSS Modeler 16.0 data mining tool are used. Exponential Smoothing is a popular forecasting method that is used to predict the immediate future for time series data. The purpose of this paper is to forecast the number of tourists in advance for the J&K state so that the tourism department shall be prepared in advance to provide essential services to the forthcoming tourists.