Nepal earthquake 25 April 2015: source parameters, precursory pattern and hazard assessment

Abstract

Spatio-temporal variations of seismicity within 300 km of the main Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 showed seismic quiescence since 2007. Decadal changes in b-value using the Gutenberg–Richter relation showed a well-marked decrease during the period January 2005–April 2015 preceding the main earthquake. Stress drop of this earthquake in the inter plate region was found to be 3.4 MPa which is much lower than the intra plate Bhuj earthquake, 2001. The un-ruptured portion of the seismic gap in western Nepal lies between longitude 82.5°E and 84.5°E, whose 200 km length (if assumed to rupture entirely in one earthquake) coupled with locked zone of about 100 km from GPS data, may generate an earthquake of magnitude about 8 although no historical data for a major earthquake is as yet available.