Survival of Broadway shows: An empirical investigation of recent trends

Abstract

Using data on Broadway performances during the recent decade, we investigate the factors relating to the survival of Broadway shows. We assess the special structure of the Broadway season and build our analysis to accommodate this structure. Three modeling approaches are employed: logistic regression, proportional hazards regression, and (log-)linear regression for censored data. All three approaches reveal persistent positive effects of attendance, awards, and nominations on survival of Broadway shows. Musicals stay open longer than comparable nonmusicals, while nonrevival shows outperform revival shows, for shows that open during the June–February “pre-season” time period. Written reviews appear to matter only for shows that open during the time period between the announcement of the Tony award nominations and the announcement of the awards, with favorable reviews in the Daily News positively related to success in that period. Musicals and nonrevivals also do better during that time period. Economic and market variables are strongly predictive for survival after Tony nominations are announced.