Drought Management Centre for South Eastern Europe

Abstract

Drought is a natural phenomenon which closely connects climate and society. When drought occurs, there is certain risk that the population will suffer social and economic consequences. This risk and depth of such consequences depends on the natural frequency and severity of the drought. As the climate changes, natural hazards are increasing, and it would be reasonable to imply that social and economic risks are consequently increasing. However, natural hazards are not the only element determining risk. The other factor is society's capability to overcome difficulties caused by water shortages - i.e vulnerability. Vulnerability determines the risk of drought impact now and in the future. Risk may rise independent of climatic trends, due to increased water demands caused by population or economic growth, or both. And the other way around: natural hazard trends may be neutralized by reducing a society's vulnerability. Assessment of both - natural hazards and societal vulnerability - are among the core objectives of the drought management centre for South Eastern Europe. Historical assessment of drought occurrence and establishment of drought monitoring systems are undertaken to establish a method for regional estimation of climatological and actual natural hazards connected to occurrence of drought. Some aspects of vulnerability (mainly in the agriculture sector) have been described for some South East European countries.