Models for HIV/AIDS

Abstract

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)AIDSwas first identified as a new disease in the homosexual community in San Francisco in 1981. The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)HIV/AIDSwas identified as the causative agent for AIDS in 1983. The disease has several very unusual aspects. After the initial infection, there are symptoms, including headaches and fever for 2 or 3 weeks. Transmissibility Transmissibilityis high for about 2 months, and then there is a very long latent period during which transmissibility Transmissibilityis low. At the end of this latent period, which may last 10 years, transmissibility Transmissibilityrises, signaling the development of full-blown AIDS. AIDSIn the absence of treatment, AIDS is AIDSinvariably fatal. Now, HIV can be treated with a combination of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) drugs, HAARTwhich both reduce the symptoms and prolong the period of low infectivity. While there is still no cure for AIDS, AIDStreatment has made it no longer a necessarily fatal disease. To describe the variation of infectivity for HIV, HIV/AIDSone possibility would be to use a staged progression model, Staged progressionwith multiple infective Infectivestages having different infectivity. InfectivityAnother possibility would be to use an age of infection model. Ageof infection