Assessing climate change signals in Western Himalayan District using PRECIS data model

Abstract

The meteorological measurements across Kangra, a western Himalayan district, are examined and analyzed for the past 43 years since 1970 and have been analyzed. Noticeable increase in temperature trends with a considerable variation during different seasons over the past quartile period has been noted. Much perceptible and significant variation among the mean minimum and mean maximum temperature in the northeastern and southwestern part of the district has been brought out. The exchanges between airflow and temperature across the hills, plains, and monsoon may significantly lead to variations in the microclimate. This is essential in predicting global and regional climate variations, because it determines the extent of human influence on the climate and makes sound projections about natural rhythm of changing climate as well as anthropogenic stimulus. The mean monthly maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation together with annual minima and maxima for the period 1970-2013 have been calculated for three stations across Kangra. The differential decadal and annual trend exhibits inconsistent signals of cooling in the high-altitude northeastern block in the district as compared to other parts in the region. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite, Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM), and Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) data have been considered to analyze the gap.