Heatwave trends and the population exposure over China in the 21st century aswell as under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C globalwarmer future scenarios

Abstract

Heatwaves exert negative socio-economic impacts and particularly have serious effects on public health. Based on the multi-model ensemble (MME) results of 10 downscaled high-resolution Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model output from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NASA-GDDP), the intensity (largest lasting time), frequency and total duration of heatwaves over China as well as population exposure in the 21st century and at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels are investigated by using the three indices, the HeatWave Duration Index (HWDI), annual total frequency of heatwaves (N_HW) and annual total days of heatwaves (T_HW) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The MME results illustrate that heatwaves are projected to become more frequent (0.40/decade and 1.26/decade for N_HW), longer-lasting (3.78 days/decade and 14.59 days/decade for T_HW) as well as more extreme (1.07 days/decade and 2.90 days/decade for HWDI under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively) over China. High latitude and high altitude regions, e.g., the Tibetan Plateau and northern China, are projected to experience a larger increase of intensity, frequency and the total time of heatwaves compared with southern China (except Central China). The total population affected by heatwaves is projected to increase significantly and will reach 1.18 billion in later part of the 21st century, and there will be more and more people expected to suffer long heatwave time (T_HW) in the 21st century. Compared with a 2.0 °C global warming climate, holding the global warming below 1.5 °C can avoid 26.9% and 29.1% of the increase of HWDI, 34.7% and 39.64% for N_TW and 35.3%-40.10% of T_HW under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The half-degree less of warming will not only decrease the population exposure by 53-83 million but also avoid the threat caused by longer heatwave exposure under the two scenarios. Based on the comprehensive assessment of heatwave under the two RCP scenarios, this work would help to enhance the understanding of climate change and consequent risk in China and thus could provide useful information for making climate adaptation policies.