Is Bad Luck the Main Cause of Cancer?

Abstract

A recent study reports that the log lifetime incidence rate across a selection of 31 cancer types is highly correlated with the log of the estimated tissue-specific lifetime number of stem cell divisions. This observation, which underscores the importance of errors in DNA replication, has been viewed as implying that most cancers arise through unavoidable bad luck, leading to the suggestion that research efforts should focus on early detection, rather than etiology or prevention. We argue that three statistical issues can, if ignored, lead analysts to incorrect conclusions. Statistics for traffic fatalities across the United States provide an example to demonstrate those inferential pitfalls. While the contribution of random cellular events to disease is often underappreciated, the role of chance is necessarily difficult to quantify. The conclusion that most cases of cancer are fundamentally unpreventable because they are the result of chance is unwarranted.