Doubting the Quran, the Hadith, and Muhammad's Splitting of the Moon: A Probabilistic Refutation of One of Islam's Most Striking Miraculous Claims

Abstract

Having spent many years engaging with Christian claims about miracles, especially the purported resurrection of Jesus, I now shift attention to Islamic miracle claims, the most striking of which seems to me to be Muhammad's alleged splitting of the moon. I explain, in a Bayesian fashion, why this almost certainly did not happen.