The PAP model: can the 4G hold on to power?

Abstract

The PAP will probably remain in power, in the short term at least, after the ‘fourth generation‘ (4G) takes over in the next general elections. The most likely scenario is for the 4G to maintain power but with much smaller majorities. If the PAP were to lose power, it would be because of mismanagement in three specific areas: the economy, foreign talent and elite cohesion. The 4G leaders are unlikely to make radical changes to the Singapore system. Singapore will not be a Western-type liberal democracy, and any real reforms to the political system will have to wait for the 5G leadership.