Subset Simulation Method for Rare Event Estimation: An Introduction

Abstract

This paper provides a detailed introductory description of Subset Simulation, an advanced stochastic simulation method for estimation of small probabilities of rare failure events. A simple and intuitive derivation of the method is given along with the discussion on its implementation. The method is illustrated with several easy-to-understand examples. For demonstration purposes, the MATLAB code for the considered examples is provided. The reader is assumed to be familiar only with elementary probability theory and statistics.