Near real-time global ionospheric total electron content modeling and nowcasting based on GNSS observations

Abstract

For the purposes of routinely providing reliable and low-latency Global Ionosphere Maps (GIMs), a method of estimating hourly updated near real-time GIM with a time latency of about 1–2 h based on a 24-h data sliding window of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) near real-time observations and real-time data streams was presented. On the basis of the implementation of near real-time GIM estimation, an hourly updated GIM nowcasting method was further proposed to improve the accurate of short-term total electron content (TEC) prediction. We estimated the Shanghai Astronomical Observatory near real-time GIM (SHUG) and nowcasting GIM (SHPG) in the solar relatively active year (2014) and quiet year (2021), and employed GIMs provided by the International GNSS Service, the Global Positioning System (GPS) differential slant TECs (dSTECs) extracted from global independent GNSS stations, and the vertical TECs (VTECs) inverted from satellite altimetry as the references to validate the estimated results. The GPS dSTECs evaluation results show that SHUG behaves fairly consistent with the rapid GIMs, with a discrepancy of less than 1 TEC unit (TECu) overall. The standard deviations (STDs) of SHUG with respect to Jason-2/-3 VTECs are no more than 10% over the majority of rapid GIMs due to the instability of observations. The performance of 1-h nowcasting SHPG is significantlybetter than the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) 1-day predicted GIM (C1PG). GPS dSTEC validation results indicate that 1-h nowcasting SHPG is 1 to 2 TECu more reliable than C1PG in eventful ionospheric electron activity regions, and it outperforms the C1PG by 10% overall versus Jason-2/-3 VTECs. The hourly updated SHUG and SHPG have relatively high reliability and low time latency, and thus can provide excellent service for (near) real-time users and offer more accurate TEC background information than daily predicted GIM for real-time GIM estimation.