Extrapolation of regionalization equations for long-term average flow

Abstract

Knowledge about long-term average flow is essential for planning and managing water resources because it represents the potential water availability. One technique used to determine streamflow is regionalization, but because most gauge stations normally are associated with large drainage areas, the extrapolation of regionalization equations does not accurately represent the water availability; therefore, this method is not recommended. The main objective of the present paper is to propose a new method of estimating water availability that minimizes the risks of extrapolating regionalization equations for long-term average flow. The method is based on the use of a threshold value of the runoff coefficient to obtain the long-term average flow at the positions of the basin where the runoff coefficient estimated by the regionalization equation exceeds the threshold value. It was found that values of the runoff coefficient estimated average flows greater than twice those of the threshold values. The use of this method allows a reliable estimation for long-term average flows in regions of extrapolation without compromising the security of the available water supply.