Validation of risk scoring models for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia in patients with ischaemic stroke

Abstract

Objective: Various risk scoring models have been developed to predict stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP). We aim to determine whether these risk models could effectively predict SAP in Chinese patients with ischaemic stroke (IS). Methods: Consecutive patients with IS in West China hospital between January 2011 and September 2013 were included to assess the predictive performance of risk scoring models, including Chumbler's score, A2DS2 and AISAPS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the performance of each risk model in predicting pneumonia. Results: A total of 1569 consecutive patients with IS within 30 days of onset in West China hospital were included. The incidence of pneumonia is 15.3%. The AUROC of Chumbler's score, A2DS2 and AISAPS was 0.659, 0.728 and 0.758, respectively, and AISAPS had the highest AUROC. Conclusions: A2DS2 and AISAPS had acceptable discriminatory abilities to predict SAP in Chinese patients with IS within 30 days of onset.