Projection of Climate Change for South East Europe and Related Impacts

Abstract

This paper reviews climate change projections based on a range of emissions scenarios extending up to the end of the twenty-first century. The study area covers South East European countries, such as Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), Serbia, Montenegro, Albania and the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). Low- and high-resolution projections of future changes in temperature and precipitation are analyzed. Scenarios exhibit an expected increase in annual air temperature of more than 5 degrees C with very slight differences over the region. The annual temperature is likely to increase by 5.3 degrees C over Serbia and northern Croatia, 5.4 degrees C over Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), rising to an increase of 5.5 degrees C through inland parts of Montenegro, as well as northern and central parts of Albania, and 5.3 degrees C in the FYROM. Coastal areas are likely to be less warm (a very slight change indeed) than those in the rest of study because of the equalizing effect of the sea. Less total precipitation, with an irregular pattern of change, is likely throughout the study area for the 2080s. A reduction of about 16-20% is expected in the northern part of Croatia and 13-16% along the coast, rising to about 22% through Montenegro and Serbia. The expected reduction will intensify over Albania (around 25% in the north, 21% in the central region, 24% in the south, and 20% in the coastal area) and Macedonia. As a result of the reduction in annual total precipitation, the study area could experience a general decrease in runoff and demands for water could increase, especially in summer. It could cause serious problems in hydropower energy production in countries like Albania which depend heavily on hydropower.