Resilience modification and dynamic risk assessment in hybrid systems: Study cases in underground settlements of murgia edge (Apulia, Southern Italy)

Abstract

The resilience of natural system, not affected by anthropic modifications, can be altered by many natural drivers (e.g. geological conditions, climate, etc.) and their spatial modifications. Over time, human activities have modified many natural systems generating “hybrid systems” (both human and natural), in which natural and anthropic drivers changed their vulnerability, in order to decrease or increase their resilience. Potential emerging signals of the resilience variation are difficult to assess because of wrong risk perception and lack of communication. In this context of soft crisis, it would be appropriate a dynamic risk assessment of hybrid systems in order to avoid disaster when hazardous phenomena occur, but it is a quite complex issue. The aim is to define the relationship between the hybrid system resilience, referring to study cases located in Apulia region, and some emerging signals and their records over time. Furthermore, the aim is to understand how human and natural drivers were involved in the shift.