The effect of climate change-induced temperature increase on performance and environmental impact of intensive pig production systems

Abstract

This study examined climate change impacts (CCI) on productivity of pig production systems, their resource use, environmental impacts and the relevance of potential adaptation options. The impact of increasing temperature and temperature-humidity index (THI) on performance of pigs in confined housing systems was analysed by a meta-analysis. Using climate data for an Austrian site for the period 1981 to 2010, different scenarios (cold year, warm year, hot year, worst case scenario) were modelled and compared. Although significant differences between thermoneutral and heat stress conditions were detected for the analysed traits of growing and finishing pigs, overall performance, resource use (cumulative energy demand) and environmental impacts (global warming, acidification and eutrophication potential) per kg of live mass for finished pigs and reared piglets did not significantly differ between most scenarios. Elements of pig production systems resilient to CCI, which were not considered under performance and environmental impacts (LCA), were addressed in a system analysis that was based on literature and expert knowledge. The most important detected system elements are plants and animals with an appropriate genetic potential, securing the access to inexpensive feed, including land for feed production, securing water supply and the implementation of health plans and measures against diseases associated with CCI.