Development of Water Level Prediction Improvement Method Using Multivariate Time Series Data by GRU Model

Abstract

The methods for improving the accuracy of water level prediction were proposed in this study by selecting the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model, which is effective for multivariate learning at the Paldang Bridge station in Han River, South Korea, where the water level fluctuates seasonally. The hydrological data (i.e., water level and flow rate) for Paldang Bridge station were entered into the GRU model; the data were provided by the Water Resources Management Information System (WAMIS), and the meteorological data for Seoul Meteorological Observatory and Yangpyeong Meteorological Observatory were provided through the Korea Meteorological Administration. Correlation analysis was used to select the training data for hydrological and meteorological data. Important input data affecting the daily water level (DWL) were daily flow rate (DFR), daily vapor pressure (DVP), daily dew point temperature (DDPT), and 1 h max precipitation (1HP), and were used as the multivariate learning data for water level prediction. However, the DWL prediction accuracy did not improve even if the meteorological data from a single meteorological observatory far from the DWL prediction point were used as the multivariate learning data. Therefore, in this study, methods for improving the predictive accuracy of DWL through multivariate learning that effectively utilize meteorological data from each meteorological observatory were presented. First, it was a method of arithmetically averaging meteorological data for two meteorological observatories and using it as the multivariate learning data for the GRU model. Second, a method was proposed to use the meteorological data of the two meteorological observatories as multivariate learning data by weighted averaging the distances from each meteorological observatory to the water level prediction point. Therefore, in this study, improved water level prediction results were obtained even if data with some correlation between meteorological data provided by two meteorological observatories located far from the water level prediction point were used.