Modeling construction and demolition waste quantities in Tanta City, Egypt: a synergistic approach of remote sensing, geographic information system, and hybrid fuzzy neural networks

Abstract

A waste management strategy needs accurate data on the generation rates of construction and demolition waste (CDW). The objective of this study is to provide a robust methodology for predicting CDW generation in Tanta City, one of the largest and most civilized cities in Egypt, based on socioeconomic and waste generation statistics from 1965 to 2021. The main contribution of this research involves the fusion of remote sensing and geographic information systems to construct a geographical database, which is employed using machine learning for modeling and predicting the quantities of generated waste. The land use/land cover map is determined by integrating topographic maps and remotely sensed data to extract the built-up, vacant, and agricultural areas. The application of a self-organizing fuzzy neural network (SOFNN) based on an adaptive quantum particle swarm optimization algorithm and a hierarchical pruning scheme is introduced to predict the waste quantities. The performance of the proposed models is compared against that of the FNN with error backpropagation and the group method of data handling using five evaluation measures. The results of the proposed models are satisfactory, with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), determination coefficient, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and index of agreement ranging between 0.70 and 1.56%, 0.01 and 0.03, 0.99 and 1.00, 0.99, and 1.00. Compared to other models, the proposed models reduce the MAPE and NRMSE by more than 92.90% and 90.64% based on fivefold cross-validation. The research findings are beneficial for utilizing limited data in developing effective strategies for quantifying waste generation. The simulation outcomes can be applied to monitor the urban metabolism, measure carbon emissions from the generated waste, develop waste management facilities, and build a circular economy in the study area.